ACTL5106 Insurance Risk Models - 2022

Subject Code
ACTL5106
Study Level
Postgraduate
Commencing Term
Term 3
Total Units of Credit (UOC)
6
Delivery Mode
Online
School
Risk & Actuarial Studies
This course outline is provided in advance of offering to guide student course selection. Please note that while accurate at time of publication, changes may be required prior to the start of the teaching session. To view other versions, visit the archives .

1. Course Details

Summary of Course

​This course covers the actuarial mathematics, statistics and models used in non-life insurance actuarial practice. Topics covered include: loss distributions and reinsurance, risk models including compound Poisson; estimation of aggregate claims distribution; probability of ruin; premium rating and credibility; experience rating systems and claims reserving for loss run-off data. Students will apply these techniques with respect to principles of effective general insurance management.

Teaching Times and Locations

Please note that teaching times and locations are subject to change. Students are strongly advised to refer to the Class Timetable website for the most up-to-date teaching times and locations.

View course timetable

Course Policies & Support

Course Aims and Relationship to Other Courses

At the end of the course students should be able to:

  1. Model the excess of aggregate premiums over aggregate losses at any point in the future and describe how the model can be used;
  2. Fit a distribution to data;
  3. Incorporate past experience (of a contract or insured) into pricing and reserving.

This course covers the mathematical foundations of non-life insurance risk modelling. The assumed knowledge for this course is a solid foundation in ACTL5101, ACTL5102 and ACTL5103. Depending on their educational background, some students may be allowed to enroll in this course without having completed these courses. We advise you to consult the lecturer if you do not have the required background.

The assumed knowledge of the course is a good understanding of mathematics as covered in a full year undergraduate program in Calculus and Linear Algebra.

2. Staff Contact Details

Position Title Name Email Location Phone Consultation Times
Lecturer-in-chargeAProfJonathan Ziveyi
93857559
LecturerDrKeith wong

Jonathan Ziveyi is the Lecturer in Charge and will oversee the course administration and lectures. Keith Wong will be responsible for all the lectures in Weeks 1-5 and 7-10, and all the student queries. There is a regular consultation hour every week. Additional consultation hours will be arranged to help students prepare for the final exam. These will be scheduled and announced during the term.

3. Learning and Teaching Activities

Use of your Webcam and Digital Devices: If you enrol in an online class, or the online stream of a hybrid class, teaching and associated activities will be conducted using Teams, Zoom, or similar a technology. Using a webcam is optional, but highly encouraged, as this will facilitate interaction with your peers and instructors. If you are worried about your personal space being observed during a class, we encourage you to blur your background or make use of a virtual background. Please contact the Lecturer-in-Charge if you have any questions or concerns.

Some courses may involve undertaking online exams for which your own computer or digital devices will be required. Monitoring of online examinations will be conducted directly by University staff and is bound by the University's privacy and security requirements. Any data collected will be handled accordance with UNSW policies and standards for data governance. For more information on how the University manages personal information please refer to the UNSW Student Privacy Statement and the UNSW Privacy Policy.

Approach to Learning and Teaching in the Course

Students are expected to watch pre-lecture videos prior to the online lecture. The live online lecture will review the main topics and demonstrate how to apply the theories and techniques with examples. They are an opportunity for students to develop an understanding of the main topics covered in the course and the level of knowledge expected.

Tutorials and in-class activities are for students to ask questions on aspects of the course that need further clarification, and to interact with other students in the course. Students need to attempt the tutorial exercises alone first and identify problems that require closer review. Students are strongly encouraged to work in teams as it is an opportunity to learn from other students and to potentially develop team skills.

Learning Activities and Teaching Strategies

Apart from lecture slides, course materials further consist of:

  • References
  • Tutorial exercises with solutions
  • Selected past quizzes and exams

It is expected the students will take a pro-active approach to learning, and students should spend at least ten hours per week studying this course. In periods where you need to complete assignments or prepare for examinations, the workload may be greater. Over-commitment (to extra-curricular activities) has been a cause of failure for many students. You should take the required workload into account when planning how to balance study with employment and other activities. In the past, students have found the amount of content particularly challenging. Don’t allow yourself to fall behind the schedule!

5. Course Resources

Course references

Note that most references are freely downloadable and/or available from the library.

The main reference book for the course is:
  • [MW] Wüthrich, Mario (2014), Non-Life Insurance: Mathematics and Statistics. This book is can be downloaded for FREE from SSRN.
  • Prof. Wüthrich is a professor at ETHZ and makes his book freely available worldwide. He updates his book regularly, so I recommend you check regularly for newer versions, and if you print, that you do so chapter per chapter at the last moment.
Suggested readings/references are:
  • The Faculty of Actuaries and The Institute of Actuaries (2002), Formulae and tables for examinations of the Faculty of Actuaries and The Institute of Actuaries, ActEd [The formulae book that you are allowed to use, if unannotated, during the final exam. Most students should already have a copy.]
  • Bühlmann, H. and Gisler, A. (2005), A Course in Credibility Theory and its Applications, Springer [Chapter 1 corresponds to our Module 6. Link.]
  • Bowers, N.L. Gerber, H.U., Hickman, J.C., Jones, D.A. and Nesbitt, C.J. (1997), Actuarial Mathematics, Society of Actuaries, 2nd Edition [A great classic for Modules 1-5. Most students having completed the life insurance course should already have a copy.]
  • Dickson, D.C.M (1995), A review of Panjer’s recursion formula and its applications, British Actuarial Journal 1:1, pp. 107-124 [This corresponds to our Module 4. Link.]
  • Klugman, S. and Rioux, J. (2006), Toward a Unified Approach to Fitting Loss Models, North American Actuarial Journal 10:1, pp. 63-83 [This corresponds to our Module 3. Link.]
  • Klugman, S.A., Panjer, H.H. and Willmot, G.E. (2019), Loss Models: From Data to Decisions, John Wiley & Sons, 5th Edition. [Chapters 16, 17 and 18 correspond to our Module 6.]
  • Lafaye de Micheaux Pierre, Drouilhet Rémy and Liquet Benoit (2013), The R software: Fundamentals of Programming and Statistical Analysis, Springer - Collection: Statistics and Computing, vol. 40.
Most references are available from the library.

Formulae & Tables

For closed-book examinations, the only text students are allowed to bring into the examinations for the actuarial courses is the text "Formulae and Tables for Actuarial Examinations". It must not be annotated. All students in the actuarial courses should purchase a copy of this text if they wish to use it in the examinations. The text is available from the UNSW Bookstore or the UK Institute of Actuaries.

Course website

The course website is available on Moodle or via my.unsw.edu.au.

The course contents will be available from the course website. It is essential that you visit the site regularly to see any notices posted there by the course coordinator, as it will be assumed that they are known to you within a reasonable time.

6. Course Evaluation & Development

Feedback is regularly sought from students and continual improvements are made based on this feedback. At the end of this course, you will be asked to complete the myExperience survey, which provides a key source of student evaluative feedback. Your input into this quality enhancement process is extremely valuable in assisting us to meet the needs of our students and provide an effective and enriching learning experience. The results of all surveys are carefully considered and do lead to action towards enhancing educational quality.

​Each year feedback is sought from students and other stakeholders about the courses offered in the School and continual improvements are made based on this feedback. UNSW's myExperience survey is one of the ways in which student evaluative feedback is gathered. In this course, we will seek your feedback through the end of semester myExperience responses. Recent development includes the replacement of the summative mid-term exam by formative online quiz, addition of some pre-recorded videos to assist with students' learning, creation of optional "R tutorials" for students to apply programming techniques to theory learnt. In this term, additional activities (as formative assessments) will be created on the discussion forum to engage students and to create a learning community.

7. Course Schedule

Note: for more information on the UNSW academic calendar and key dates including study period, exam, supplementary exam and result release, please visit: https://student.unsw.edu.au/new-calendar-dates
Week Activity Topic Assessment/Other
Week 1: Sep 12, 2022

Module 1: Introduction

Module 2: Collective Risk Modelling

Activities on discussion forum (Tentative)

Week 2: Sep 19, 2022

Module 2: Collective Risk Modelling

Module 3: Individual Claim Size Modelling

Week 3: Sep 26, 2022

Module 3: Individual Claim Size Modelling

Module 4: Approximations for Compound Distributions

Activities on discussion forum (Tentative)

Week 4: Oct 3, 2022

Module 4: Approximations for Compound Distributions

Module 5: Ruin Theory and Premium Calculation Principles

Week 5: Oct 10, 2022

Module 5: Ruin Theory and Premium Calculation Principles

Activities on discussion forum (Tentative)

Week 6: Oct 17, 2022Self Study week

Self study week

Week 7: Oct 24, 2022

Module 6: Bayesian Models and Credibility Theory

Assignment due (Tentative)

Week 8: Oct 31, 2022

Module 6: Bayesian Models and Credibility Theory

Activities on discussion forum (Tentative)

Week 9: Nov 7, 2022

Module 6: Bayesian Models and Credibility Theory

Module 7: Claims Reserving

Formative online quiz (Tentative)

Week 10: Nov 14, 2022

Module 7: Claims Reserving

Review

Activities on discussion forum (Tentative)

8. Policies and Support

Information about UNSW Business School program learning outcomes, academic integrity, student responsibilities and student support services. For information regarding special consideration, supplementary exams and viewing final exam scripts, please go to the key policies and support page.

Program Learning Outcomes

The Business School places knowledge and capabilities at the core of its curriculum via seven Program Learning Outcomes (PLOs). These PLOs are systematically embedded and developed across the duration of all coursework programs in the Business School.

PLOs embody the knowledge, skills and capabilities that are taught, practised and assessed within each Business School program. They articulate what you should know and be able to do upon successful completion of your degree.

Upon graduation, you should have a high level of specialised business knowledge and capacity for responsible business thinking, underpinned by ethical professional practice. You should be able to harness, manage and communicate business information effectively and work collaboratively with others. You should be an experienced problem-solver and critical thinker, with a global perspective, cultural competence and the potential for innovative leadership.

All UNSW programs and courses are designed to assess the attainment of program and/or course level learning outcomes, as required by the UNSW Assessment Design Procedure. It is important that you become familiar with the Business School PLOs, as they constitute the framework which informs and shapes the components and assessments of the courses within your program of study.

PLO 1: Business knowledge

Students will make informed and effective selection and application of knowledge in a discipline or profession, in the contexts of local and global business.

PLO 2: Problem solving

Students will define and address business problems, and propose effective evidence-based solutions, through the application of rigorous analysis and critical thinking.

PLO 3: Business communication

Students will harness, manage and communicate business information effectively using multiple forms of communication across different channels.

PLO 4: Teamwork

Students will interact and collaborate effectively with others to achieve a common business purpose or fulfil a common business project, and reflect critically on the process and the outcomes.

PLO 5: Responsible business practice

Students will develop and be committed to responsible business thinking and approaches, which are underpinned by ethical professional practice and sustainability considerations.

PLO 6: Global and cultural competence

Students will be aware of business systems in the wider world and actively committed to recognise and respect the cultural norms, beliefs and values of others, and will apply this knowledge to interact, communicate and work effectively in diverse environments.

PLO 7: Leadership development

Students will develop the capacity to take initiative, encourage forward thinking and bring about innovation, while effectively influencing others to achieve desired results.


These PLOs relate to undergraduate and postgraduate coursework programs.  For PG Research PLOs, including Master of Pre-Doctoral Business Studies, please refer to the UNSW HDR Learning Outcomes

Business School course outlines provide detailed information for students on how the course learning outcomes, learning activities, and assessment/s contribute to the development of Program Learning Outcomes.

UNSW Graduate Capabilities

The Business School PLOs also incorporate UNSW graduate capabilities, a set of generic abilities and skills that all students are expected to achieve by graduation. These capabilities articulate the University’s institutional values, as well as future employer expectations.

UNSW Graduate CapabilitiesBusiness School PLOs
Scholars capable of independent and collaborative enquiry, rigorous in their analysis, critique and reflection, and able to innovate by applying their knowledge and skills to the solution of novel as well as routine problems.
  • PLO 1: Business knowledge
  • PLO 2: Problem solving
  • PLO 3: Business communication
  • PLO 4: Teamwork
  • PLO 7: Leadership development

Entrepreneurial leaders capable of initiating and embracing innovation and change, as well as engaging and enabling others to contribute to change
  • PLO 1: Business knowledge
  • PLO 2: Problem solving
  • PLO 3: Business communication
  • PLO 4: Teamwork
  • PLO 6: Global and cultural competence
  • PLO 7: Leadership development

Professionals capable of ethical, self-directed practice and independent lifelong learning
  • PLO 1: Business knowledge
  • PLO 2: Problem solving
  • PLO 3: Business communication
  • PLO 5: Responsible business practice

Global citizens who are culturally adept and capable of respecting diversity and acting in a socially just and responsible way.
  • PLO 1: Business knowledge
  • PLO 2: Problem solving
  • PLO 3: Business communication
  • PLO 4: Teamwork
  • PLO 5: Responsible business practice
  • PLO 6: Global and cultural competence

While our programs are designed to provide coverage of all PLOs and graduate capabilities, they also provide you with a great deal of choice and flexibility.  The Business School strongly advises you to choose a range of courses that assist your development against the seven PLOs and four graduate capabilities, and to keep a record of your achievements as part of your portfolio. You can use a portfolio as evidence in employment applications as well as a reference for work or further study. For support with selecting your courses contact the UNSW Business School Student Services team.





Academic Integrity and Plagiarism

Academic Integrity is honest and responsible scholarship. This form of ethical scholarship is highly valued at UNSW. Terms like Academic Integrity, misconduct, referencing, conventions, plagiarism, academic practices, citations and evidence based learning are all considered basic concepts that successful university students understand. Learning how to communicate original ideas, refer sources, work independently, and report results accurately and honestly are skills that you will be able to carry beyond your studies.

The definition of academic misconduct is broad. It covers practices such as cheating, copying and using another person’s work without appropriate acknowledgement. Incidents of academic misconduct may have serious consequences for students.

Plagiarism

UNSW regards plagiarism as a form of academic misconduct. UNSW has very strict rules regarding plagiarism. Plagiarism at UNSW is using the words or ideas of others and passing them off as your own. All Schools in the Business School have a Student Ethics Officer who will investigate incidents of plagiarism and may result in a student’s name being placed on the Plagiarism and Student Misconduct Registers.

Below are examples of plagiarism including self-plagiarism:

Copying: Using the same or very similar words to the original text or idea without acknowledging the source or using quotation marks. This includes copying materials, ideas or concepts from a book, article, report or other written document, presentation, composition, artwork, design, drawing, circuitry, computer program or software, website, internet, other electronic resource, or another person's assignment, without appropriate acknowledgement of authorship.

Inappropriate Paraphrasing: Changing a few words and phrases while mostly retaining the original structure and/or progression of ideas of the original, and information without acknowledgement. This also applies in presentations where someone paraphrases another’s ideas or words without credit and to piecing together quotes and paraphrases into a new whole, without appropriate referencing.

Collusion: Presenting work as independent work when it has been produced in whole or part in collusion with other people. Collusion includes:

  • Students providing their work to another student before the due date, or for the purpose of them plagiarising at any time
  • Paying another person to perform an academic task and passing it off as your own
  • Stealing or acquiring another person’s academic work and copying it
  • Offering to complete another person’s work or seeking payment for completing academic work

Collusion should not be confused with academic collaboration (i.e., shared contribution towards a group task).

Inappropriate Citation: Citing sources which have not been read, without acknowledging the 'secondary' source from which knowledge of them has been obtained.

Self-Plagiarism: ‘Self-plagiarism’ occurs where an author republishes their own previously written work and presents it as new findings without referencing the earlier work, either in its entirety or partially. Self-plagiarism is also referred to as 'recycling', 'duplication', or 'multiple submissions of research findings' without disclosure. In the student context, self-plagiarism includes re-using parts of, or all of, a body of work that has already been submitted for assessment without proper citation.

To see if you understand plagiarism, do this short quiz: https://student.unsw.edu.au/plagiarism-quiz

Cheating

The University also regards cheating as a form of academic misconduct. Cheating is knowingly submitting the work of others as their own and includes contract cheating (work produced by an external agent or third party that is submitted under the pretences of being a student’s original piece of work). Cheating is not acceptable at UNSW.

If you need to revise or clarify any terms associated with academic integrity you should explore the 'Working with Academic Integrity' self-paced lessons available at: https://student.unsw.edu.au/aim.

For UNSW policies, penalties, and information to help you avoid plagiarism see: https://student.unsw.edu.au/plagiarism as well as the guidelines in the online ELISE tutorials for all new UNSW students: http://subjectguides.library.unsw.edu.au/elise. For information on student conduct see: https://student.unsw.edu.au/conduct.

For information on how to acknowledge your sources and reference correctly, see: https://student.unsw.edu.au/referencing. If you are unsure what referencing style to use in this course, you should ask the lecturer in charge.



Student Responsibilities and Conduct

​Students are expected to be familiar with and adhere to university policies in relation to class attendance and general conduct and behaviour, including maintaining a safe, respectful environment; and to understand their obligations in relation to workload, assessment and keeping informed.

Information and policies on these topics can be found on the 'Managing your Program' website.

Workload

It is expected that you will spend at least ten to twelve hours per week studying for a course except for Summer Term courses which have a minimum weekly workload of twenty to twenty four hours. This time should be made up of reading, research, working on exercises and problems, online activities and attending classes. In periods where you need to complete assignments or prepare for examinations, the workload may be greater. Over-commitment has been a cause of failure for many students. You should take the required workload into account when planning how to balance study with employment and other activities.

We strongly encourage you to connect with your Moodle course websites in the first week of semester. Local and international research indicates that students who engage early and often with their course website are more likely to pass their course.

View more information on expected workload

Attendance and Engagement

Your regular attendance and active engagement in all scheduled classes and online learning activities is expected in this course. Failure to attend / engage in assessment tasks that are integrated into learning activities (e.g. class discussion, presentations) will be reflected in the marks for these assessable activities. The Business School may refuse final assessment to those students who attend less than 80% of scheduled classes where attendance and participation is required as part of the learning process (e.g. tutorials, flipped classroom sessions, seminars, labs, etc.). If you are not able to regularly attend classes, you should consult the relevant Course Authority.

View more information on attendance

General Conduct and Behaviour

You are expected to conduct yourself with consideration and respect for the needs of your fellow students and teaching staff. Conduct which unduly disrupts or interferes with a class, such as ringing or talking on mobile phones, is not acceptable and students may be asked to leave the class.

View more information on student conduct

Health and Safety

UNSW Policy requires each person to work safely and responsibly, in order to avoid personal injury and to protect the safety of others.

View more information on Health and Safety

Keeping Informed

You should take note of all announcements made in lectures, tutorials or on the course web site. From time to time, the University will send important announcements to your university e-mail address without providing you with a paper copy. You will be deemed to have received this information. It is also your responsibility to keep the University informed of all changes to your contact details.




Student Support and Resources

The University and the Business School provide a wide range of support services and resources for students, including:

Business School Learning Support Tools
Business School provides support a wide range of free resources and services to help students in-class and out-of-class, as well as online. These include:

  • Academic Communication Essentials – A range of academic communication workshops, modules and resources to assist you in developing your academic communication skills.
  • Learning consultations – Meet learning consultants who have expertise in business studies, literacy, numeracy and statistics, writing, referencing, and researching at university level.
  • PASS classes – Study sessions facilitated by students who have previously and successfully completed the course.
  • Educational Resource Access Scheme – To support the inclusion and success of students from equity groups enrolled at UNSW Sydney in first year undergraduate Business programs.

The Nucleus - Business School Student Services team
The Nucleus Student Services team provides advice and direction on all aspects of enrolment and graduation. Level 2, Main Library, Kensington 02 8936 7005 / https://nucleus.unsw.edu.au/en/contact-us

Business School Equity, Diversity and Inclusion
The Business School Equity, Diversity and Inclusion Committee strives to ensure that every student is empowered to have equal access to education. The Business School provides a vibrant, safe, and equitable environment for education, research, and engagement that embraces diversity and treats all people with dignity and respect. BUSEDI@unsw.edu.au

UNSW Academic Skills
Resources and support – including workshops, individual consultations and a range of online resources – to help you develop and refine your academic skills. See their website for details.
academicskills@unsw.edu.au

Student Support Advisors
Student Support Advisors work with all students to promote the development of skills needed to succeed at university, whilst also providing personal support throughout the process.
John Goodsell Building, Ground Floor.
advisors@unsw.edu.au
02 9385 4734

International Student Support
The International Student Experience Unit (ISEU) is the first point of contact for international students. ISEU staff are always here to help with personalised advice and information about all aspects of university life and life in Australia.
Advisors can support you with your student visa, health and wellbeing, making friends, accommodation and academic performance.
International.student@unsw.edu.au
02 9385 4734

Equitable Learning Services
Equitable Learning Services (formerly Disability Support Services) is a free and confidential service that provides practical support to ensure that your health condition doesn't adversely affect your studies. Register with the service to receive educational adjustments.
Ground Floor, John Goodsell Building.
els@unsw.edu.au
02 9385 4734

UNSW Counselling and Psychological Services
Provides support and services if you need help with your personal life, getting your academic life back on track or just want to know how to stay safe, including free, confidential counselling.
Level 2, East Wing, Quadrangle Building.
counselling@unsw.edu.au
02 9385 5418

Library services and facilities for students
The UNSW Library offers a range of collections, services and facilities both on-campus and online.
Main Library, F21.
02 9065 9444

Moodle eLearning Support
Moodle is the University’s learning management system. You should ensure that you log into Moodle regularly.
externalteltsupport@unsw.edu.au
02 9385 3331

UNSW IT
UNSW IT provides support and services for students such as password access, email services, wireless services and technical support.
UNSW Library Annexe (Ground floor).
02 9385 1333



Support for Studying Online

The Business School and UNSW provide a wide range of tools, support and advice to help students achieve their online learning goals. 

The UNSW Guide to Online Study page provides guidance for students on how to make the most of online study.

We recognise that completing quizzes and exams online can be challenging for a number of reasons, including the possibility of technical glitches or lack of reliable internet. We recommend you review the Online Exam Preparation Checklist of things to prepare when sitting an online exam.

ACTL5106