ECON2209 Business Forecasting - 2021

ECON2209
Undergraduate
Term 1
6 Units of Credit
On Campus and Online
Economics

1. Course Details

Summary of Course

This course covers the practical use of econometric and statistical techniques applied in the business world. Building and evaluating forecasting models using time series data will be the focus of this course. Understanding these issues will allow students to formulate and use reliable forecasting models based on sound economic principles.

Teaching Times and Locations

Please note that teaching times and locations are subject to change. Students are strongly advised to refer to the Class Timetable website for the most up-to-date teaching times and locations.

View course timetable

Course Policies & Support

Course Aims and Relationship to Other Courses

​This course is offered as part of the economics/econometrics stream in the BCom and BEc degrees. Building on basic theories and knowledge learnt in ECON1203 Business and Economic Statistics, this course aims mainly to provide a foundation in long-term business forecasting analyses based on econometric methods. Reliable long-term demand forecasts are essential input to the formulation of business plans in capital-intensive and price-regulated industries such as electricity, gas and water supply industries. This course is a prerequisite of ECON3206 Financial Econometrics.

Presumed knowledge

A prerequisite for this course is ECON1203 Business and Economics Statistics.

2. Staff Contact Details

Position Title Name Email Location Phone Consultation Times
Lecturer-in-chargeProfKevin FoxRoom 3119, Quadrangle building(02) 9385 3320Wednesday 12:30-1:30 pm and by appointment

Communications with staff

You should feel free to contact your lecturer about any academic matter. However, for efficiency, all enquiries about the subject material should be made at lectures or tutorials or during consultation time. Discussion of course subject material will not be entered into via lengthy emails.

Student Enrolment Requests

Students can vary their own enrolment (including switching lecture streams or tutorials) via myUNSW until the end of Week 1. In general, most other student enrolment requests should be directed to The Nucleus: Student Hub (formerly Student Central). These include enrolment in full courses or tutorials, course timetable clashes, waiving prerequisites for any course, transfer-of-credit (international exchange, transfer to UNSW, cross-institutional study, etc.), or any other request which requires a decision about equivalence of courses and late enrolment for any course. Where appropriate, the request will be passed to the School Office for approval before processing. Note that enrolment changes are rarely considered after Week 2 classes have taken place.

3. Learning and Teaching Activities

Approach to Learning and Teaching in the Course

​The philosophy underpinning this course and its teaching and learning strategies is based on the Guidelines on Learning that Inform Teaching at UNSW. Specifically, the lectures, tutorials and assessment have been designed to appropriately challenge students and support the achievement of the desired learning outcomes. A climate of inquiry and dialogue is encouraged between students and teachers and among students (in and out of class). The lecturers and tutors aim to provide meaningful and timely feedback to students to improve learning outcomes.

Learning Activities and Teaching Strategies

Lectures

Pre-prepared video recordings for the lectures will be placed on the Moodle site. Students should view these videos and related materials. It is expected that it will take students at least two hours to view and review these recordings. The scheduled lecture times are Wednesdays 11-12:30 and Fridays 11-12:30. The scheduled lecture times on Fridays (11-12:30) and a portion of the scheduled Wednesday lectures (from 11 to 11:30) can be used for viewing and reviewing these recordings. There will be a one-hour online session with the LIC on Wednesday from 11:30-12:30pm, during which time he will go through the lecture material in more detail, provide extra examples, and answer questions. This will be followed by an hour of online consultation time, where the lecturer will be available to answer any further questions. In total, it is expected that students will spend three hours per week on the lecture materials (2 hours viewing and reviewing the recorded videos, plus 1 hour online with the lecturer on Wednesdays from 11:30 to 12:30.

The purpose of lectures is to provide a logical structure for the topics that make up the course; to emphasise the important principles/concepts/methods of each topic; and to provide relevant examples to which the principles/concepts/methods are applied.

Tutorials

There are one and a half hour tutorials each week, starting from Week 2. These are either in-person (on campus) or online, depending on the stream in which you are enrolled. Tasks and questions will be assigned for each tutorial. Students should attempt these before attending tutorial.

The tutorials are an integral part of the subject. Tutorial presentations, discussions, and solutions to problems are designed to help students deepen their understanding and practice learnt material. The tutorials will also help you learn and use the statistical package R that is used in the course. Online tutorials will be recorded to be available for students in different time zones.

In summary, there will be 4.5 hours of structured activities for this course each week:

1. Viewing and reviewing lecture recordings: 2 hours

2. Attending an online lecture with the lecturer: 1 hour (Wednesdays 11:30-12:30)

3. Tutorials: 1.5 hours

Statistics Computer Package R is the computer package used in the course. The tutorials will show you how to download and use R. Some of you may have already had some or extensive experience with R.

Out-of-Class Study

While students may have preferred individual learning strategies, it is important to note that most learning will be achieved outside of class time. Lectures can only provide a structure to assist your study, and tutorial time is limited.

An “ideal” weekly strategy (on which the provision of the course materials is based) might include:

  1. View the relevant pre-prepared video recordings and read the relevant chapter(s) of the text and lecture slides before attending the online component of the lecture.
  2. Attend the online lecture. Here the context of the topic in the course and the important elements of the topic are explained in more detail.
  3. Attempt tutorial tasks and questions before attending the tutorial class. This helps you identify issues that can be discussed and resolved in the tutorial class.

5. Course Resources

The website for this course is on Moodle.

TEXTBOOK
Rob J Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos (3rd Edn, 2020), Forecasting: Principles and Practice, Hyndman & Athanasopoulos. The book can be viewed online for free at https://otexts.com/fpp3/

You can also purchase the book in soft and hard copy.

You will also find useful the slides based on the book at https://robjhyndman.com/teaching/

Pre-prepared lecture videos, lecture notes, slides and related resources will be available on the Moodle site.

Some other useful books that might be of reference:
Diebold, F.X. (2007), Elements of Forecasting, 4th Edition, Thomson South-Western (downloadable from the course website)

Gujarati, D.N. and Porter, D.C., Basic Econometrics, 5th Edition, McGraw Hill (downloadable).

Ord, J. K., Fildes, R., & Kourentzes, N. (2017). Principles of business forecasting (2nd ed.). Wessex Press Publishing Co. (available on Amazon)

Armstrong, J. S. (Ed.). (2001). Principles of forecasting: A handbook for researchers and practitioners. Kluwer Academic Publishers. (available on Amazon)

Newbold, P. and T. Bos (1994), Introductory Business and Economic Forecasting, 2nd Edition, International Thomson Publishing

Brockwell, P.J. and R.A. Davis (1996), Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting, Springer-Verlag
Wilson, J.H. and B. Keating (2007), Business Forecasting, 5th Edition, McGraw-Hill/Irwin​

SOFTWARE
The software for the course is R and most of the exercises that you do will be in R. The assigned book uses R. R is a modern statistical language that has extensive capabilities and is free. This means that as part of the course you will master a modern computer package for data analytics that is increasingly used in business. Skills in using this software are increasingly valued.


6. Course Evaluation & Development

Feedback is regularly sought from students and continual improvements are made based on this feedback. At the end of this course, you will be asked to complete the myExperience survey, which provides a key source of student evaluative feedback. Your input into this quality enhancement process is extremely valuable in assisting us to meet the needs of our students and provide an effective and enriching learning experience. The results of all surveys are carefully considered and do lead to action towards enhancing educational quality.

​​The School of Economics strives to be responsive to student feedback. If you would like more information on how the design of this course and changes made to it over time have taken students’ needs and preferences into account, please contact the Director of Education at the School of Economics.

Students' course evaluations are very important for the further development of this course. Feedback provided by previous students has led to significant improvements in assessment items, review questions, exercises, and clarity of illustration.

Consent for De-Identified Data to be Used for Secondary Research into Improving Student Experience

To enhance your student experience, researchers at UNSW conduct academic research that involves the use of de-identified student data, such as assessment outcomes, course grades, course engagement and participation, etc. Students of this course are being invited to provide their consent for their de-identified data to be shared with UNSW researchers for research purposes after the course is completed.

Providing consent for your de-identified data to be used in academic research is voluntary and not doing so will not have an impact on your course grades.

Researchers who want to access your de-identified data for future research projects will need to submit individual UNSW Ethics Applications for approval before they can access your data.

A full description of the research activities aims, risks associated with these activities and how your privacy and confidentiality will be protected at all times can be found here.

If you consent to have your de-identified data used for academic research into improving student experience, you do not need to do anything. Your consent will be implied, and your data may be used for research in a format that will not individually identify you after the course is completed.

If you do not consent for this to happen, please email the opt-out form to seer@unsw.edu.au to opt-out from having your de-identified data used in this manner. If you complete the opt-out form, the information about you that was collected during this course will not be used in academic research.

7. Course Schedule

Note: for more information on the UNSW academic calendar and key dates including study period, exam, supplementary exam and result release, please visit: https://student.unsw.edu.au/new-calendar-dates
Week Activity Topic Assessment/Other
Week 1: 15 FebruaryLecture 1 and 2

Introduction to Forecasting

Time Series Graphics

Hyndman and Athanasopoulos (2020), chapters 1 and 2

Week 2: 22 FebruaryLecture 1 and 2

Continuation of Time series graphics

Time series decomposition

Hyndman and Athanasopoulos (2020), chapters 2 and 3

Tutorial

Introduction to R

Exercises in R

Hyndman and Athanasopoulos (2020), Appendix: Using R

Week 3: 1 MarchLecture 1 and 2

Features of time series

Hyndman and Athanasopoulos (2020), Chapter 4

Problem Set 1 due at 5pm on Friday of this week.

Tutorial

More R practice

Discuss time series graphics

 

Problem solving and class participation

Week 4: 8 MarchLecture 1 and 2

Some tools for time series

Hyndman and Athanasopoulos (2020), Chapter 5

 

Tutorial

Look at features of time series in R

Discuss previous exercises given out

Review the first Problem Set

Problem solving and class participation

 

Week 5: 15 MarchLecture 1 and 2

Judgemental forecasts

Hyndman and Athanasopoulos (2020), Chapter 6

Problem Set 2 due at 5pm on Friday of this week.

Tutorial

Work with time series tools in R

Go over data analysis exercises in R

 

Problem solving and class participation

Week 6: 22 MarchLecture 1 and 2

NO LECTURES

Tutorial

NO TUTORIALS

Week 7: 29 MarchLecture 1 and 2

Time series regression models

NOTE: Friday 2 April is a public holiday. Online sessions with the lecturer are on Wednesdays 11:30-12:30, followed by consultation 12:30-1:30pm. This is not affected by the public holiday. If, due to their holiday plans for 2 April, students are unable to view the recorded lecture videos in the assigned lecture time, they should view it at another time of convenience.

 

Hyndman and Athanasopoulos (2020), Chapter 7

Tutorial

Go over exercises in judgmental forecasts.

Review the second Problem Set

Problem solving and class participation

Week 8: 5 AprilLecture 1 and 2

Exponential smoothing

Hyndman and Athanasopoulos (2020), Chapter 8

Tutorial

Work with time series regression models in R

Go over data analysis exercises in R

 

Problem solving and class participation

Week 9: 12 AprilNo lecture

ARIMA models

Hyndman and Athanasopoulos (2020), Chapter 9

Project submission due at 5pm on Friday of this week.

Tutorial

Go over R commands for exponential smoothing

 

Problem solving and class participation

Week 10: 19 AprilLectures 1 & 2

NO LECTURES

Tutorial

ARIMA R commands and related commands

Go over some exercises on ARIMA

Wrap-up and preparation for Final Exam

8. Policies and Support

Information about UNSW Business School protocols, University policies, student responsibilities and education quality and support.

Program Learning Outcomes

The Business School places knowledge and capabilities at the core of its curriculum via seven Program Learning Outcomes (PLOs). These PLOs are systematically embedded and developed across the duration of all coursework programs in the Business School.

PLOs embody the knowledge, skills and capabilities that are taught, practised and assessed within each Business School program. They articulate what you should know and be able to do upon successful completion of your degree.

Upon graduation, you should have a high level of specialised business knowledge and capacity for responsible business thinking, underpinned by ethical professional practice. You should be able to harness, manage and communicate business information effectively and work collaboratively with others. You should be an experienced problem-solver and critical thinker, with a global perspective, cultural competence and the potential for innovative leadership.

All UNSW programs and courses are designed to assess the attainment of program and/or course level learning outcomes, as required by the UNSW Assessment Design Procedure. It is important that you become familiar with the Business School PLOs, as they constitute the framework which informs and shapes the components and assessments of the courses within your program of study.

PLO 1: Business knowledge

Students will make informed and effective selection and application of knowledge in a discipline or profession, in the contexts of local and global business.

PLO 2: Problem solving

Students will define and address business problems, and propose effective evidence-based solutions, through the application of rigorous analysis and critical thinking.

PLO 3: Business communication

Students will harness, manage and communicate business information effectively using multiple forms of communication across different channels.

PLO 4: Teamwork

Students will interact and collaborate effectively with others to achieve a common business purpose or fulfil a common business project, and reflect critically on the process and the outcomes.

PLO 5: Responsible business practice

Students will develop and be committed to responsible business thinking and approaches, which are underpinned by ethical professional practice and sustainability considerations.

PLO 6: Global and cultural competence

Students will be aware of business systems in the wider world and actively committed to recognise and respect the cultural norms, beliefs and values of others, and will apply this knowledge to interact, communicate and work effectively in diverse environments.

PLO 7: Leadership development

Students will develop the capacity to take initiative, encourage forward thinking and bring about innovation, while effectively influencing others to achieve desired results.

These PLOs relate to undergraduate and postgraduate coursework programs.  Separate PLOs for honours and postgraduate research programs are included under 'Related Documents'.

Business School course outlines provide detailed information for students on how the course learning outcomes, learning activities, and assessment/s contribute to the development of Program Learning Outcomes.

RELATED DOCUMENTS

 

UNSW Graduate Capabilities

The Business School PLOs also incorporate UNSW graduate capabilities, a set of generic abilities and skills that all students are expected to achieve by graduation. These capabilities articulate the University’s institutional values, as well as future employer expectations.

UNSW Graduate CapabilitiesBusiness School PLOs
Scholars capable of independent and collaborative enquiry, rigorous in their analysis, critique and reflection, and able to innovate by applying their knowledge and skills to the solution of novel as well as routine problems.
  • PLO 1: Business knowledge
  • PLO 2: Problem solving
  • PLO 3: Business communication
  • PLO 4: Teamwork
  • PLO 7: Leadership development

Entrepreneurial leaders capable of initiating and embracing innovation and change, as well as engaging and enabling others to contribute to change
  • PLO 1: Business knowledge
  • PLO 2: Problem solving
  • PLO 3: Business communication
  • PLO 4: Teamwork
  • PLO 6: Global and cultural competence
  • PLO 7: Leadership development

Professionals capable of ethical, self-directed practice and independent lifelong learning
  • PLO 1: Business knowledge
  • PLO 2: Problem solving
  • PLO 3: Business communication
  • PLO 5: Responsible business practice

Global citizens who are culturally adept and capable of respecting diversity and acting in a socially just and responsible way.
  • PLO 1: Business knowledge
  • PLO 2: Problem solving
  • PLO 3: Business communication
  • PLO 4: Teamwork
  • PLO 5: Responsible business practice
  • PLO 6: Global and cultural competence

While our programs are designed to provide coverage of all PLOs and graduate capabilities, they also provide you with a great deal of choice and flexibility.  The Business School strongly advises you to choose a range of courses that assist your development against the seven PLOs and four graduate capabilities, and to keep a record of your achievements as part of your portfolio. You can use a portfolio as evidence in employment applications as well as a reference for work or further study. For support with selecting your courses contact the UNSW Business School Student Centre.




Academic Integrity and Plagiarism

Academic Integrity is honest and responsible scholarship. This form of ethical scholarship is highly valued at UNSW. Terms like Academic Integrity, misconduct, referencing, conventions, plagiarism, academic practices, citations and evidence based learning are all considered basic concepts that successful university students understand. Learning how to communicate original ideas, refer sources, work independently, and report results accurately and honestly are skills that you will be able to carry beyond your studies.

The definition of academic misconduct is broad. It covers practices such as cheating, copying and using another person’s work without appropriate acknowledgement. Incidents of academic misconduct may have serious consequences for students.

Plagiarism

UNSW regards plagiarism as a form of academic misconduct. UNSW has very strict rules regarding plagiarism. Plagiarism at UNSW is using the words or ideas of others and passing them off as your own. All Schools in the Business School have a Student Ethics Officer who will investigate incidents of plagiarism and may result in a student’s name being placed on the Plagiarism and Student Misconduct Registers.

Below are examples of plagiarism including self-plagiarism:

Copying: Using the same or very similar words to the original text or idea without acknowledging the source or using quotation marks. This includes copying materials, ideas or concepts from a book, article, report or other written document, presentation, composition, artwork, design, drawing, circuitry, computer program or software, website, internet, other electronic resource, or another person's assignment, without appropriate acknowledgement of authorship.

Inappropriate Paraphrasing: Changing a few words and phrases while mostly retaining the original structure and/or progression of ideas of the original, and information without acknowledgement. This also applies in presentations where someone paraphrases another’s ideas or words without credit and to piecing together quotes and paraphrases into a new whole, without appropriate referencing.

Collusion: Presenting work as independent work when it has been produced in whole or part in collusion with other people. Collusion includes:

  • Students providing their work to another student before the due date, or for the purpose of them plagiarising at any time
  • Paying another person to perform an academic task and passing it off as your own
  • Stealing or acquiring another person’s academic work and copying it
  • Offering to complete another person’s work or seeking payment for completing academic work

Collusion should not be confused with academic collaboration (i.e., shared contribution towards a group task).

Inappropriate Citation: Citing sources which have not been read, without acknowledging the 'secondary' source from which knowledge of them has been obtained.

Self-Plagiarism: ‘Self-plagiarism’ occurs where an author republishes their own previously written work and presents it as new findings without referencing the earlier work, either in its entirety or partially. Self-plagiarism is also referred to as 'recycling', 'duplication', or 'multiple submissions of research findings' without disclosure. In the student context, self-plagiarism includes re-using parts of, or all of, a body of work that has already been submitted for assessment without proper citation.

To see if you understand plagiarism, do this short quiz: https://student.unsw.edu.au/plagiarism-quiz

Cheating

The University also regards cheating as a form of academic misconduct. Cheating is knowingly submitting the work of others as their own and includes contract cheating (work produced by an external agent or third party that is submitted under the pretences of being a student’s original piece of work). Cheating is not acceptable at UNSW.

If you need to revise or clarify any terms associated with academic integrity you should explore the 'Working with Academic Integrity' self-paced lessons available at: https://student.unsw.edu.au/aim.

For UNSW policies, penalties, and information to help you avoid plagiarism see: https://student.unsw.edu.au/plagiarism as well as the guidelines in the online ELISE tutorials for all new UNSW students: http://subjectguides.library.unsw.edu.au/elise. For information on student conduct see: https://student.unsw.edu.au/conduct.

For information on how to acknowledge your sources and reference correctly, see: https://student.unsw.edu.au/referencing. If you are unsure what referencing style to use in this course, you should ask the lecturer in charge.


Student Responsibilities and Conduct

​Students are expected to be familiar with and adhere to university policies in relation to class attendance and general conduct and behaviour, including maintaining a safe, respectful environment; and to understand their obligations in relation to workload, assessment and keeping informed.

Information and policies on these topics can be found on the 'Managing your Program' website.

Workload

It is expected that you will spend at least ten to twelve hours per week studying for a course except for Summer Term courses which have a minimum weekly workload of twenty to twenty four hours. This time should be made up of reading, research, working on exercises and problems, online activities and attending classes. In periods where you need to complete assignments or prepare for examinations, the workload may be greater. Over-commitment has been a cause of failure for many students. You should take the required workload into account when planning how to balance study with employment and other activities.

We strongly encourage you to connect with your Moodle course websites in the first week of semester. Local and international research indicates that students who engage early and often with their course website are more likely to pass their course.

View more information on expected workload

Attendance

Your regular and punctual attendance at lectures and seminars or in online learning activities is expected in this course. The Business School reserves the right to refuse final assessment to those students who attend less than 80% of scheduled classes where attendance and participation is required as part of the learning process (e.g., tutorials, flipped classroom sessions, seminars, labs, etc.).

View more information on attendance

General Conduct and Behaviour

You are expected to conduct yourself with consideration and respect for the needs of your fellow students and teaching staff. Conduct which unduly disrupts or interferes with a class, such as ringing or talking on mobile phones, is not acceptable and students may be asked to leave the class.

View more information on student conduct

Health and Safety

UNSW Policy requires each person to work safely and responsibly, in order to avoid personal injury and to protect the safety of others.

View more information on Health and Safety

Keeping Informed

You should take note of all announcements made in lectures, tutorials or on the course web site. From time to time, the University will send important announcements to your university e-mail address without providing you with a paper copy. You will be deemed to have received this information. It is also your responsibility to keep the University informed of all changes to your contact details.



Student Support and Resources

​The University and the Business School provide a wide range of support services and resources for students, including:

Business School EQS Consultation Program
The Consultation Program offers academic writing, literacy and numeracy consultations, study skills, exam preparation for Business students. Services include workshops, online resources, individual and group consultations. 
Level 1, Room 1035, Quadrangle Building.
BUS.EQS.Consultations@unsw.edu.au
02 9385 4508

Communication Resources
The Business School Communication and Academic Support programs provide online modules, communication workshops and additional online resources to assist you in developing your academic writing.

Business School Student Centre
The Business School Student Centre provides advice and direction on all aspects of admission, enrolment and graduation.
Level 1, Room 1028 in the Quadrangle Building
02 9385 3189

UNSW Learning & Careers Hub
The UNSW Learning & Careers Hub provides academic skills and careers support services—including workshops, individual consultations and a range of online resources—for all UNSW students. See their website for details.
Lower Ground Floor, North Wing Chancellery Building.
learningcentre@unsw.edu.au
02 9385 2060

Student Support Advisors
Student Support Advisors work with all students to promote the development of skills needed to succeed at university, whilst also providing personal support throughout the process.
John Goodsell Building, Ground Floor.
advisors@unsw.edu.au
02 9385 4734

International Student Support
The International Student Experience Unit (ISEU) is the first point of contact for international students. ISEU staff are always here to help with personalised advice and information about all aspects of university life and life in Australia.
Advisors can support you with your student visa, health and wellbeing, making friends, accommodation and academic performance.
International.student@unsw.edu.au
02 9385 4734

Equitable Learning Services
Equitable Learning Services (formerly Disability Support Services) is a free and confidential service that provides practical support to ensure that your health condition doesn't adversely affect your studies. Register with the service to receive educational adjustments.
Ground Floor, John Goodsell Building.
els@unsw.edu.au
02 9385 4734

UNSW Counselling and Psychological Services
Provides support and services if you need help with your personal life, getting your academic life back on track or just want to know how to stay safe, including free, confidential counselling.
Level 2, East Wing, Quadrangle Building.
counselling@unsw.edu.au
02 9385 5418

Library services and facilities for students
The UNSW Library offers a range of collections, services and facilities both on-campus and online.
Main Library, F21.
02 9385 2650

Moodle eLearning Support
Moodle is the University’s learning management system. You should ensure that you log into Moodle regularly.
externalteltsupport@unsw.edu.au
02 9385 3331

UNSW IT
UNSW IT provides support and services for students such as password access, email services, wireless services and technical support.
UNSW Library Annexe (Ground floor).
02 9385 1333



ECON2209